Thursday, August 18, 2016

The transfer saga continues

The transfer saga at Valencia CF continues, as we are inching closer to the start of the new season, we still don't know what our final team will look like, I think this is the biggest frustration many fans have, just not knowing and unsure if we can replace players we sell so late in the transfer window with players that are equally as good, or preferably better.

There is no point to sell great players to get weaker ones, its just a defeatist policy that can only lead to ruin, such policies are suicide and especially at Valencia CF should not happen.

If we were going to sell Shkodran Mustafi it had to be a month ago, at a huge price of 40 million euros, where we had enough time to find a suitable replacement, purchase them, incorporate them into the team and establish them, not right now where we barely even have time to find an alternative, let alone acquire them and then establish them in the team.

But then again Mustafi could stay and Aymen Abdennour could leave, after all that was the latest and seemed like more precise rumor, something that made much more sense, but the fact that nothing has happened yet, leads me to believe there is more to the Mustafi story that just pure speculation.

As far as Paco Alcacer is concerned, I'm not worried anymore, we have had several public statements that Paco isn't for sale and he's personally said he is not looking to move, unless of course the club want to sell him, which they've publicly stated they don't. So I don't expect Paco to leave at this point, if we sell him it would be devastating, especially this close to the transfer window closing, it would be absurd to sell one of our best players in the last two seasons and basically our only pure striker in the team, Moreno still has a long way to convert back to that striker role after playing on the wing for the past two seasons.

Diego Alves to me is a done deal, he's as good as gone, the question is how much will we get for him, personally I believe he is worth 20 million euros, the least we should get though is 15 million euros, anything bellow and that is just giving him away for free, giving away a top keeper to supposedly our competition(Barcelona) for pennies on the dollar, its just ridiculous.

Hopefully what happens is we sell Aymen Abdennour for 20 million euros, he's also got a big salary so we get a big boost to our coffers, use those 20 million euros to get Raul Albiol, if we can't get him for a reasonable price or say 12-13 million euros when he only has a year left on his contract, then we should turn to another experienced defender who is established and has played good, but is not on a top team to have his price inflated.

Then of course with the money from Aymen's sale, the money saved on his salary, we should keep Shkodran Mustafi, keep Paco, keep Diego Alves and sell Ryan. I know Diego has a big salary, but he is a top keeper, he's worth every penny we pay him, sure he was injured last season for a big part of it, but he is fit now, he is better than the other two, he is a veteran of Valencia CF, he pays off what he's worth.

I'd sell Ryan and keep Jaume as back-up, Ryan likely has a high salary as well, we know Peter Lim is garbage at negotiating salaries, we know he overpaid ALL of the players he signed, Gomes was overpaid, Enzo was overpaid and still is, Cancelo was overpaid, Negredo was severely overpaid, Moreno is overpaid, etc... He overpaid every one of these players as if we are a premier league club, when we aren't, we didn't even have a sponsor, yet he overpaid all of these players and now that we didn't qualify for the Champions league and still don't have sponsors he is selling them left and right to keep the check book balanced.

Its clear that he made mistake after mistake after mistake and he is still doing them. You can't sell like crazy this close to the start of the season and end of the transfer window to try and desperately balance the check book, you had to do it earlier, the team had to be defined at least a month before and you can't sell top players and bring in weaker alternatives, why sell them in the first place?

The only way to earn money in the long run, to be successful, is to keep building a top team with good players that you don't overpay in the first place, you give them realistic Spanish La Liga salaries and you won't have troubles paying their salaries later on. Once your top players keep on qualifying for the Champions league consistently you'll find good sponsors, they want international attention, they don't want Spanish attention, when Spain has been in a deep recession for the past 5 years. They want international exposure, to the whole European market, not just the local Spanish market, especially knowing its mostly the Valencia region that they would penetrate with Valencia CF sponsorship.

Lets hope things turn out good, though with Lim and his management everything bad is possible, there are even rumors that we'll sell Shkodran Mustafi to Liverpool and get Alberto Moreno Luis Alberto the other way, though this seems unlikely as Liverpool don't really need a new central defender and I don't think they'll want to sell or loan Alberto either, plus with all the transfers they've already done this summer I don't think they have the money to acquire any expensive players, they could probably move in for someone at a cheaper 15 million euros or so, but don't think they can afford another 30 million euros or more for a player like Shkodran Mustafi.

Aymen Abdennour has been a liability last season, so selling him for around 20 million would actually be good for us, get a cash injection, get rid of his high salary and end up keeping Mustafi, but once again the management has to be smart about this, but they've showed a tendency to be really stupid and do the wrong things over and over. Use the money from the sale wisely and bring in a good, experienced and reliable defender on the cheap, there are options out there.

Now if we sell Mustafi and Diego Alves will the team be looking at a relegation battle? Personally I know that this team is capable of beating the expectations in a negative manner and fight for relegation last season was the demonstration that we are capable of just that, even with all of the players we had last season, so its possible but less likely to happen, even if we sell Mustafi and Diego Alves.

I think between Vezo, Santos, Aymen and a new and experienced defender we could have decent, not great, but decent defense that isn't going to ruin us. Certainly not relegation level terrible, but I'd forget about Chmapions league or Europa league football without those two. I'm not even counting Paco to leave, I just don't think it will happen, the club and management are not suicidal, Peter Lim doesn't want an "accident" to happen when he arrives in Valencia, so zero chance to sell Paco this summer.

Now if we get to keep Diego Alves, Mustafi and sell Aymen and get a new defender, Albiol would be the best option, but a good experienced alternative would also be okay, I do think the team has a small chance to challenge for Europa league positions. Its going to be very hard and the team would have to click perfectly, Nani would need to instantly contribute, Moreno would need to keep his great form from preseason and play great each week, Paco would have to repeat the previous seasons in terms of contribution and our updated midfield trio would have to do at least mildly better than last season, which is doable. Also our "new" left back Leto would have to be the new Gaya from two seasons ago and contribute the same amount as Gaya did back then. Then we would have a  chance to get top 6 and enter into the Europa league.