Monday, February 6, 2012

Valencia needs a win in La Liga

While I'm pleased with the draw with Atletico Madrid and I think that is the fairest result by all measurements I feel like Valencia CF has overall slipped in the domestic league with 4 draws and 1 loss in the last 5 matches. That is basically 11 points lost and considering we drew 3 of these matches in the last minute practically it really increases the pain.

Part of this is probably the Copa Del Rey as Valencia CF has really been focusing on going further and with now Barcelona and previously Levante it probably did have an effect of the overall performance, but since Emery has been rotating the players it shouldn't have affected us so much.

Right now though first things first we need to go and win against Barcelona and no less at the Camp Nou, but the fact that we've drawn with Barcelona twice this season shows that we can compete with them and our bigger squad should theoretically give us a bit of an advantage, although I really doubt how much real the freshness effect is and how really tired players are.

But no matter if we win or loose at Camp Nou we must prioritize the domestic league as top priority and 3rd place is a must, especially after such poor season start from all Valencia CF competitors.

Villarreal, Sevilla, Atletico Bilbao and for much of the start Atletico Madrid have all been poor, with Malaga not really being a direct competitor just as I've actually predicted it won't and said it will finish around 6th and now it seems increasingly likely that way, so the biggest competition we've had is from Levante another Valencia based club, which I guess is good.

But thing is Atletico Madrid are catching up really fast and just as I've predicted again accurately before the season began that Atletico Madrid have a very strong squad, realistically stronger than Valencia squad and if things go their way will be our main competitor and hold and behold with the change of coach that is happening right now.

Surprisingly though even I couldn't predict the disaster that is going to turn out Villarreal and their miserable season, especially since their current squad is practically the same from a season ago minus Cazorla.

So yeah right now the biggest worry I have is Atletico Madrid as I feel can challenge our 3rd place which up until now was pretty safe and even Emery admitted yesterday that after the last draw 3rd place is no longer safe and it will be a challenge to keep it.

What I'm enthusiastic about is the fact that even without Mata and with some big injuries and quite a fewer overall players than last season we are doing as well as last season and this time the Europa League might even turn out to be a blessing in disguise if we can reach the latter stages of it like the semi final or even final and dare I say win.

But on to another topic I want to say that I was right yet again about Parejo and wrote that it would be best for him to leave as he is not combining with the team and the fact that his character is standing in the way is an even bigger reason for him to have left. Now how was I right again? Well that is because first my rating of players is based in fact and statistics and not feel. I agree it has a lot of feel and subjectivity in it, but in all that it has an actual formula of how it works.
 
First off all the players start off with a score of 5 and at the end of the match I calculate with the points they lost or received and that creates the final score in the majority of cases.
For every goal, assist, penalty save and major block or perfect offside trap the player/s in question receive +1 point.
For every positive action in the game, say good through pass creating a chance or distributing the ball precisely in a positive way the player/s gets 0.5 points.
For every negative action like giving the ball few too many times, failed shots or blocks the player/s gets -0.5 points.
For major mistakes like giving/loosing the ball away close to own goal or in very dangerous position or a 5 meter clear goal miss or things of that nature player/s gets -1 points.

So ultimately I end up giving each player from 3-4 points up to 10-12 depending on his involvement.

Example: I give Albelda 4 0.5 points for positive actions and 1 negative 0.5 point so that is basically 2-0.5=1.5. So 5 starting point + 1.5=6.5 final rating.

Now every once and a while I'd increase or decrease the rating based on pure feel about how they played, but it mostly has some science behind it.

Second thing was the team play analysis. Sometimes you can have the best player, yet he not going to play well for example Messi for most of his Argentina performances. You got to see how he fits with other players, which role suits him and does not suit him and just the general feel of the game and how the player is part of it.

The fact that he has done pretty bad in both and coupled with his negative attitude about the situation was enough for me to write him off. And he is not going to improve this season. If we don't sell him next season and he also decides to stay and try and fight for a spot from the ground up and has a really good summer he may become a valuable asset to our team, but that is obviously a long shot.

/End discussion-rant.

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